Market Posture Monitor
as of 2026-10-23 · generated 2026-10-24
All figures computed by code; no AI-generated numbers
Market posture: Neutral — moderate volatility, credit conditions tight, gains concentrated in a few stocks; but valuation sits at the 98th percentile of 10 years — rich.
Risk Switch
Should you be defensive? — rules-based, four components
Neutralrisk-off probability 53.2%
VIX 10y Percentile66.2
Credit Stress Risk Component74.2
SPY<200DMANo
Market Breadth Risk Component73.8
Monitor Indicators
IndicatorValue10y PercentileStateRoleExplainer
Relative Strength — XLE+16.0ppNormalLeadingHow much a sector has out-/under-performed the S&P 500 over the trailing 63 trading days — a read on whether money is flowing into that sector
Market Breadth-2.13%
26th percentile (narrow participation)
AlertLeadingHow many stocks participate in the rally — the narrower the participation, the more the market depends on a few names
% above 200-DMA — Hottest Sector+19.8%WatchLeadingHow far price sits above its 200-day moving average — the more extreme the deviation, the more room to fall back
CBOE SKEW152.39AlertSemi-leadingInstitutional demand for tail-risk insurance against an extreme selloff — the higher it is, the more investors are hedging against a crash
VIX19.45WatchCoincidentThe options market's pricing of expected 30-day volatility — how nervous the market is; low = calm
Credit proxy (HYG/IEF)-0.28%AlertCoincidentHigh-yield corporate bonds' performance relative to Treasuries — how loose or tight corporate credit conditions are
Drawdown from 52-wk high-2.45%WatchStateHow far the broad market sits below its highest point over the past year
SPY % above 200-DMA+4.8%NormalStateHow far the broad market's price sits above its 200-day average
10Y–13W Treasury spread+0.96ppWatchSlow-movingThe gap between long- and short-term Treasury yields — an inversion (negative value) has historically often preceded a recession
Shiller CAPE (P/E10)40.58AlertSlow-movingShare prices as a multiple of average earnings over the past ten years — the standard yardstick for long-run valuation
Sector Heat Board
Sector63-day ExcessRelative Strength Percentile% above 200-DMA200-DMA Percentile
XLE+16.0pp+19.8%
XLK+2.3pp+8.8%
XBI-3.5pp+6.2%
XLF-4.5pp+4.4%
SOX-9.5pp+0.8%
XLF Financials/XLK Technology/XLE Energy/XBI Biotech (ETFs) · SOX Philadelphia Semiconductor Index
Sources: yfinance (VIX/SKEW/SPY/RSP/HYG/IEF/^TNX/^IRX/^SOX/XLK/XLE/XLF/XBI/MU/EWY/005930.KS/000660.KS/KRW=X) · multpl.com (Shiller CAPE) · slickcharts.com (S&P 500 top-10 weight, currently 403 gap)
Warning-rule thresholds calibrated on a single event — the 2026-06/07 semiconductor selloff (n=1); pending validation against more historical events
Not investment advice